Mass economy coming back online? - Paint Talk

plainpainter · 11-20-2009, 12:39 AM

http://www.bostonherald.com/business...ess&position=3

Unemployment for October dropped in MA for the first time since june '07 down from 9.3% in September to 8.9%. This is what I have been holding my breath for since O'bama took office and got the bail out plan passed. 8.9% is still sky high, but man I'll take it. If we could improve like .2% and .3% every month - recovery will just be a foregone conclusion. I honestly feel that we're over the 'hump' now.

Dave Mac · 11-20-2009, 07:15 AM

Really, I feel its gonna get way worse then better, if he passes health care and cap and trade, you will be looking at unemployment in the teens if not higher imo. And you cant trust the numbers the media is feeding us anyways, everyday their is a story about how the numbers are just made up and evidence to support it.

plainpainter · 11-20-2009, 08:39 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Mac

Really, I feel its gonna get way worse then better, if he passes health care and cap and trade, you will be looking at unemployment in the teens if not higher imo. And you cant trust the numbers the media is feeding us anyways, everyday their is a story about how the numbers are just made up and evidence to support it.

The media??!? That's a government statistic, Mac. It came right from the Executive office of labor and Work force development. Here is the link

http://lmi2.detma.org/Lmi/News_release_state.asp

Brian339 · 11-20-2009, 08:43 AM

I think there are two ways to look at these numbers.

One is that the unemployment rate is based soley on those who file for unemployment.

Second is the fact that a very large percentage of self-employed people are out of work and cannot file for benefits. Not to mention all the under the table people not working.

I have heard I believe the true unemployment number to be at least twice what is reported. It could be more.

I will take any good news and I remain confident things will come back. Its a matter of when and how.

plainpainter · 11-20-2009, 08:50 AM

Brian - I agree there is a 'true' unemployment that may be perhaps double the government figure. But I think even if you could find it out - it would show improvement as well. An improvement is an improvement is an improvement.

However, as you and I live in the same 'valley'. Fast forward into the future and the economy is hustling and bustling - will things return as they were in the painting world? Or will have an overload of immigrants forcing the industry down again? I can imagine a scenerio whereby the painting trades still suck - even if the economy is great, what do you think?

Dave Mac · 11-20-2009, 11:58 AM

[quote=plainpainter;100515]The media??!? That's a government statistic, Mac. It came right from the Executive office of labor and Work force development. Here is the link

http://lmi2.detma.org/Lmi/News_release_state.asp[/quot

Gonv has totally lied just about everything I wouldnt start trusting them now.

Brian339 · 11-20-2009, 12:05 PM

Dan I think things in the Merrimack Valley are going to be pretty rough for at least another year.

I signed on today with a bigger contractor. I am heading to Vermont on Monday. I need a paycheck to keep things going so its of to gods country for me.

I feel relieved and enthusiastic to at least know I will have an income for the next 5 months.

Sometimes you have to do......what you have to do.

ewingpainting.net · 11-20-2009, 12:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by plainpainter

I honestly feel that we're over the 'hump' now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave Mac

Really, I feel its gonna get way worse then better.

Its amazing the different takes on how the economy is going to be in 2010. I get the warm fuzzy feeling when I hear comments like plainpainter. Then my gut gets wrenched when I hear comments like DavMac.
I don't know what calis rate is. And I don't think I want to know. This has been a long haul we have been in. And we still got an uphill fight. I would like to think we are on our way to better times. But no one can be sure of that. We hear specialist say "when you see ______ rise. That a sign that we are out of the recession" but we still are coming home with beans. So clearly _____ was not the determining factor. Who to believe? I just want to focus on what I am doing to help my business and family get through the bad and/or good economy to come. We can't change what people around us is going to do. But we can change what we do. So my question is. What are you doing to change the economy in your household and business.
Good luck to all for and I hope we ALL have a kick azz twenty ten.
Edit
Just heard my ue rate up 12.9. But I would guess its more like 22

y.painting · 11-20-2009, 02:41 PM

To anyone who thinks they know where the economy/etc is heading next year, I heartily recommend two readings - The Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness by Nicholas Taleb. The truth is, no one, not even the so called experts, know where a beast as complex as the world economy is headed. It moves in random directions and the "indicators" we have to gauge it's activity are not very good proxies of its health. The only way to truly know where it will be next year, I am afraid we simply have to wait and see.

plainpainter · 11-20-2009, 03:04 PM

Nobody may never truly know where the economy is going - but I see all data trending away from recession. I was at 'Bread 'n Circus' today and the place was bustling - starbucks is now always full when I walk by, it wasn't that way a year ago.

ewingpainting.net · 11-20-2009, 03:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by plainpainter

Nobody may never truly know where the economy is going - but I see all data trending away from recession. I was at 'Bread 'n Circus' today and the place was bustling - starbucks is now always full when I walk by, it wasn't that way a year ago.

What the hell is 'Bread 'n Circus'?

plainpainter · 11-20-2009, 03:10 PM

It's a 'shi-shi' grocery store.

ewingpainting.net · 11-20-2009, 03:27 PM

Ohhhh
Wtf is s 'shi shi' grocery store?

plainpainter · 11-20-2009, 04:21 PM

It's like double the cost of a normal grocery store, loaded with 'organic' foods - shelves and shelves of natural nuts you can scoop - salad bar, espresso bar - whole nine yards.

Dave Mac · 11-20-2009, 04:51 PM

I would be willing to bet if cap and tax, or the BS healthcare gets passed it will kill the economy. How can it not, health care takes aprox 20% more of your income, on top of the already 33% they take in taxes. Then Cap and tax, your electric bill will at least double, as will gas prices.

ewingpainting.net · 11-20-2009, 05:03 PM

Legalize the magic dragon.
Not for myself of course. Heard on the news that the medical places. Pulling in 60 G's a day in LA.

GMack · 11-20-2009, 06:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Brian339

Dan I think things in the Merrimack Valley are going to be pretty rough for at least another year.

I signed on today with a bigger contractor. I am heading to Vermont on Monday. I need a paycheck to keep things going so its of to gods country for me.

I feel relieved and enthusiastic to at least know I will have an income for the next 5 months.

Sometimes you have to do......what you have to do.

Brian,

Where in Vermont are you working? Just curious because I live and work in Vermont . . .