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Old 07-28-2010, 07:45 PM   #41
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I'd enter my leads 20 bucks a pop. Of course I'd be picking and choosing.
I think were on to something here, dan pays you 20 a pop to enter your leads then he turns around and sells them for 30 a pop. Dan is just creating a national lead service for himself to sell, we all have been hadd
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Old 07-29-2010, 02:10 AM   #42
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So let's say you go on a measure call, come back home, and you enter the address into the server - then have dinner, watch a little tv. Then let's say by 9 pm you decide to crunch a few numbers. And then in your mailbox is a report that says the homeowner has requested so far 7 other estimates from participating members.

Oh. I see. That's better than I first understood it.

So painters wont be getting lists of addresses of houses they didn't bid on.

They will ONLY get a return of how many people put bids on an address THEY already bid on and sent in.

IF they got a email back saying 3 others bid on the job, how can they know that actually 5 didn't bid on it, but that 2 didn't submit their bid to the database?

I do agree with you about the curiosity.

They are sitting there with the bid they did that day, and a place to enter in the bid to see if any one else bid on it.

I could see quite a few people just not being able to resist the urge to find out.
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Old 07-29-2010, 02:22 AM   #43
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Well, it's official guys. I just registered the website and purchased their intro hosting package from network solutions. Rather than F' around with hardware - I decided to get back into the game fooling around with a server already up and going. And since the account has access to a mysql database - I think the only thing I'll need to setup is a mailserver on my end to do all the mailing.
Lol. That was fast.

Seriously if this doesn't work out pursue similar ideas. If I personally had your technical know-how I with computers, I would definitely use it.

Also I am going to write an apology in my next post, I think I confused you with another member.
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Old 07-29-2010, 02:26 AM   #44
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Plainpainter, I think I may have confused you with another member.

If so I would like to apologize and retract the statement.

When I said there are a fair amount of things you had posted that I thought there was a simple solution too, I think I meant a different member that I have seen lots of posts by that sort of had gloomy outlook on dealing with customers and painting in general.

I can't remember who it is off hand, but I had noticed lots of other people commenting on said persons outlook on painting, and never bothered to comment myself.

If this is not you I sincerely apologize for confusing you with the other member.

If it is you, then carry on, I honestly didn't mean anything bad by my original post any way.
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Old 07-29-2010, 02:34 AM   #45
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I was thinking the same thing, why would I share my leads? If I put down that I am doing a bid at so and so's house and all of sudden Susy Homeowner has 3 painters knocking on her door?
If I understand it now, it wouldn't work that way.

I think he is saying that you get an opportunity to do a bid. You enter the address in, if anyone else recently bid on that address, you would get an email back telling you that someone else did.

But the other person who put the bid in ALREADY had the lead. That is the only way you could receive a hit back, is if other people already had the lead, and submitted the address to find out if anyone else also was bidding on the job.

Now that I do understand it, I actually don't think I would do it. I guess I would never want to submit my customers address to any kind of 3rd party service.

I thought I would just get to pay to see if a customer is crappy or not.

That would be worth it to me if that could happen somehow. But personally I wouldn't enter my customer's address in to any 3rd party.

I could actually see lots of people doing it though, it is a clever idea, and it might work for him.

Security is a problem though. I don't know how he would assure the system didn't get hacked.
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Old 07-29-2010, 07:03 AM   #46
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And this all comming from a guy who doesn's paint anymore, who truly care about us
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Old 07-29-2010, 08:06 AM   #47
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And this all comming from a guy who doesn's paint anymore, who truly care about us
Not just painting, it will be good for construction, plumbing, electrical, anything!!!!!

This ain't gonna be perfect. I am imagining different levels of service. I want it to be a peer to peer confirmation, so members have to know each other and gradually endorse someone else. There will be room for the 'lurkers' but I might put caps on what they can do, for instance a max of 5 proposals submitted to the system per month.

And then I thought about selling the leads as well. For instance say 'Confirmed' member gets an an RFQ - and he is the first one on the system to get the RFQ. He may have the choice to put it on the 'auction' page and sell the lead with a description of the job - sharing the profit with website of course. Give guys a chance to make a few extra bucks too in case the job doesn't really suit them, or if they just can't get to it in time.
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Old 07-29-2010, 12:53 PM   #48
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And then I thought about selling the leads as well. For instance say 'Confirmed' member gets an an RFQ - and he is the first one on the system to get the RFQ. He may have the choice to put it on the 'auction' page and sell the lead with a description of the job - sharing the profit with website of course. Give guys a chance to make a few extra bucks too in case the job doesn't really suit them, or if they just can't get to it in time.
Lol. Well I definitely think something like this might take off.

But at the point where you have people auctioning off leads, there are a lot of contractors that won't want to participate with their valuable lead information.

But I do think you are on to something with this kind of idea, and I think there are probably thousands of similar things you could implement on the web that you would make a ton of money at if this one doesn't work out for some reason.


Also, I wonder if you ahve given any thought to security?

What is to prevent Colic Blow painters or some other franchise from hiring someone to hack into the server, and be farming out leads all of their little henchmen?

What is to prevent another lead service from hacking in to do the same?

Will people's lead and customer information really be safe?
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Old 07-29-2010, 01:28 PM   #49
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Safety is an issue - but for the time being it's being hosted on a Network Solutions server - I think their security is pretty up to par. If at some point in the future this actually becomes big - well I'll cross that bridge when I get there. For now I am going to assume, that it will be fairly safe and hackers sophisticated to Break Through Network Solutions security team, in all probability not be interested in the first place. They are probably trying to hack into places such as Bank of America, TJ Maxx, etc. Only small fry crackers like to go round the net looking to break into redhat boxes. I think it will be immune from that for quite a while.
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Old 07-29-2010, 01:31 PM   #50
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Safety is an issue - but for the time being it's being hosted on a Network Solutions server - I think their security is pretty up to par. If at some point in the future this actually becomes big - well I'll cross that bridge when I get there. For now I am going to assume, that it will be fairly safe and hackers sophisticated to Break Through Network Solutions security team, in all probability not be interested in the first place. They are probably trying to hack into places such as Bank of America, TJ Maxx, etc. Only small fry crackers like to go round the net looking to break into redhat boxes. I think it will be immune from that for quite a while.
Someone mentioned that most people only get 3 estimates and I agreed...even say 4.

How does can this possibly be effective?
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Old 07-29-2010, 01:36 PM   #51
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But at the point where you have people auctioning off leads, there are a lot of contractors that won't want to participate with their valuable lead information.
This shouldn't be an issue - as it is, I have thought about auctioning off my own leads on ebay or something. These leads I share with other contractors - nobody 'owns' leads. This site will just offer a utility to make it easy for them if they wish. Instead of going on ebay or something - and not having an 'audience' for this in the first place. It will be centralized.
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Old 07-29-2010, 02:13 PM   #52
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Someone mentioned that most people only get 3 estimates and I agreed...even say 4.

How does can this possibly be effective?
I disagree, Harry, the Law of Supply and Demand is being tweaked by homeowners. Three estimates per homeowner is not enough to explain the downward 'pressure' on price contractors are feeling. Pricing goes down because homeowners get more than 3 estimates. If homeowners average 4 estimates, there is a greater force on price than just 3 estimates.

I mean consider 2 universes, where homeowners get 3 estimates in one universe - and in a parallel universe homeowners get 11 estimates on the average. Which universe do you think prices will be generally lower?
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Old 07-29-2010, 05:17 PM   #53
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This is good stuff to keep focused on, I see a very good future in it for you
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Old 07-29-2010, 07:43 PM   #54
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I disagree, Harry, the Law of Supply and Demand is being tweaked by homeowners. Three estimates per homeowner is not enough to explain the downward 'pressure' on price contractors are feeling. Pricing goes down because homeowners get more than 3 estimates. If homeowners average 4 estimates, there is a greater force on price than just 3 estimates.

I mean consider 2 universes, where homeowners get 3 estimates in one universe - and in a parallel universe homeowners get 11 estimates on the average. Which universe do you think prices will be generally lower?
Who's theory is this? Proven? Or just your hunch?

You replied to a 3 or 4 estimate post..and then brought back the 11 estimate thing.

I don't see anyone getting 11 estimates, I really don't.

So, let's stick with the 3 and 4 estimate idea.

Assuming everyone is going to have 3 or 4 (at the most) estimates, (just for giggles if you will)...what is the outcome here?
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Old 07-29-2010, 08:05 PM   #55
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Who's theory is this? Proven? Or just your hunch?

You replied to a 3 or 4 estimate post..and then brought back the 11 estimate thing.

I don't see anyone getting 11 estimates, I really don't.

So, let's stick with the 3 and 4 estimate idea.

Assuming everyone is going to have 3 or 4 (at the most) estimates, (just for giggles if you will)...what is the outcome here?
It's called Game Theory. You have one gas station in town - they can name their price. A second one moves into town, there is a little more competition. And with each additional gas station, there is more and more competition for the same # of customers. Of course in the petroleum industry unlike in the painting industy - there is a lower threshold. There is no bottom to our market.

I'd assume, Harry, on the whole - if most folks get 3 to 4 estimates, you'd probably have a good chance at closing 25%-33% of your estimates. And at such closing %'s - you would most likely have to maintain a fairly lean and mean proposals - as there isn't much 'wiggle' room. If you start closing below those #'s your profit model could collapse very quickly.

If folks were getting 2-3 estimates, your closing rates will vary by 33%-50%, and this is a fairly high closing rate for a residential exterior/interior painter - at which point you can afford to start padding your estimates with a bit extra profit, afford to pay your top guys more money to keep 'em happier so you can maintain employee loyalty. And if you start closing below, you have some leeway and profit model won't collapse - and you can really tweak your numbers.

If folks are getting 1-2 estimates - obviously closing rates are going to be very high - contractors aren't going to be so 'lean' and 'mean' and do battle with each other over jobs - life is real good.


On the whole - I'd say 3-4 estimates represents the 'tipping' point or the fulcrum for this see-saw. Folks start getting more than those estimates, things start crumbling extremely fast.

I am not comfortable with folks getting 3-4 estimates - as that forces everyone to work real mean, be firm with employee salaries, really keep everything in check - and hopefully walk away with an 8% net profit margin when all is said and done. But on the whole you can survive and do well.

If you aren't closing 25%-33% of the time - then folks are definitely getting more estimates.
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Old 07-29-2010, 08:12 PM   #56
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Dan

Your theory assumes that price is the sole factor in consumer decision making. It's not.

Also, we aren't selling a commodity, we are selling a service.

Further, you are blaming the homeowner for driving prices down. As long as painters, and not homeowners, are writing up the estimates, the burden lies with us to maintain standards.

It is possible to sell at a higher price than 2-3 others for the same job.



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Old 07-29-2010, 08:34 PM   #57
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Dan

Your theory assumes that price is the sole factor in consumer decision making. It's not.

Also, we aren't selling a commodity, we are selling a service.

Further, you are blaming the homeowner for driving prices down. As long as painters, and not homeowners, are writing up the estimates, the burden lies with us to maintain standards.

It is possible to sell at a higher price than 2-3 others for the same job.
Scott - I am not disagreeing with you - and perhaps being a Salesman can help us close, but for the theory of large #'s you may be able to close at a higher price than the average price - but you will never beat the closing statistics in the long run.

When I was really involved in the securities industry, hung out with brokers in Boston, talked to lots of portfolio managers, etc. There was a very interesting statistic about portfolio management. Basically the craze for investing got really hot in the 90's - as the returns were really high in the market back then. And everyone and their grandfather was always chasing the next blazing hot portfolio fund manager that was going to be the next Peter Lynch. And there were all these reports in Investor's Business Daily and what not about what funds out performed the market and who underperformed etc.

But when you crunched the numbers, if you assigned a certain amount of your money to any fund that represented the s&p 500 and another to any fund that had a certain amount of their portfolio invested in Dividend paying stocks, and another in bonds. That your returns over the long run had a high correlation to how you divided the money between those three categories - but had very little to do with choosing the 'hot' fund. You basically could pick any fund that fit your criteria and your returns over the long run would pretty much be the same - and very few could beat you.

I liken that to sales, sometimes I think we're fooling ourselves if we think we can beat the system with better sales. It has some effect, but the effect becomes less and less and less the more and more estimates folks get. Until it has very little effect at all. Customers that are tuned into the sort of company you are - are pretty much already sold on you before you show up to even meet them.
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Old 07-29-2010, 08:39 PM   #58
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just amazing
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Old 07-29-2010, 08:42 PM   #59
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I do find that interesting, but don't see the correlation to paint contracting. Maybe, if the goal was to be $5m in annual sales, you might be onto something with the game theory.

I think contracting is loaded with ascents and plateaus. You got stuck at one plateau and convinced yourself that there could be no more.

I do think it would be very cool if you could become the czar of leads.



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Old 07-29-2010, 09:06 PM   #60
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It's called Game Theory. You have one gas station in town - they can name their price. A second one moves into town, there is a little more competition. And with each additional gas station, there is more and more competition for the same # of customers. Of course in the petroleum industry unlike in the painting industy - there is a lower threshold. There is no bottom to our market.

I'd assume, Harry, on the whole - if most folks get 3 to 4 estimates, you'd probably have a good chance at closing 25%-33% of your estimates. And at such closing %'s - you would most likely have to maintain a fairly lean and mean proposals - as there isn't much 'wiggle' room. If you start closing below those #'s your profit model could collapse very quickly.

If folks were getting 2-3 estimates, your closing rates will vary by 33%-50%, and this is a fairly high closing rate for a residential exterior/interior painter - at which point you can afford to start padding your estimates with a bit extra profit, afford to pay your top guys more money to keep 'em happier so you can maintain employee loyalty. And if you start closing below, you have some leeway and profit model won't collapse - and you can really tweak your numbers.

If folks are getting 1-2 estimates - obviously closing rates are going to be very high - contractors aren't going to be so 'lean' and 'mean' and do battle with each other over jobs - life is real good.


On the whole - I'd say 3-4 estimates represents the 'tipping' point or the fulcrum for this see-saw. Folks start getting more than those estimates, things start crumbling extremely fast.

I am not comfortable with folks getting 3-4 estimates - as that forces everyone to work real mean, be firm with employee salaries, really keep everything in check - and hopefully walk away with an 8% net profit margin when all is said and done. But on the whole you can survive and do well.

If you aren't closing 25%-33% of the time - then folks are definitely getting more estimates.
I'm a bit familiary with Game Theory however, if you have decided that Game Theory is the basis of this business...I'd be thinking about checking this out...making sure it doesn't violate collusion laws.

Game Theory Collusion is quite common in poker, etc. and as I said in earlier posts, I can't wrap my head around the inner consequences or results of all of this but collusion definitely feels to be a part of this...
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